Oscar Picks 2012

The Oscars are coming up this sunday, and unlike years past many of the categories are much more closely contended with no real front-runners. Here is who I think will win, who ought to win, and a dark horse for this year's biggest categories.



Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win - Woody Allen -  Midnight in Paris
Who Should Win - Michel Hazanvicius -  The Artist
The Dark Horse - Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig -  Bridesmaids


While it would be great to see the out and out comedy Bridesmaids win this category, the clear frontrunner is Midnight in Paris is an original story about a man who struggles with life and love while traveling through time to Paris of the 1920's. It's a poignant and funny story with a strong message about nostalgia. However, the Academy should really honor the script writing skills of Hazanavicius, who had to tell the incredible story of a silent film star in the talkie era without any dialog. 


Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win - Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash - The Descendants
Who Should Win - Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughn - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Dark Horse - Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughn - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy


For some reason, critics are eating up The Descendants. I did not like this film, but it is the odds on favorite to win Best Adapted Screenplay. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is being overlooked for this award, but I think it is easily the strongest of the bunch.


Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win - Octavia Spencer - The Help
Who Should WIn - Octavia Spencer - The Help
The Dark Horse - Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids


Octavia Spencer has been in the industry for a while, and it is great to see her finally get some recognition for her work. Her performance and subject matter in The Help is just what the Academy tends to favor, but this year it's with good reason. However, Melissa McCarthy's surprisingly multifaceted performance in Bridesmaids could get a surprise win here.


Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win - Nick Nolte - Warrior
Who Should Win - Nick Nolte - Warrior
The Dark Horse - Christopher Plummer - Beginners 


Hollywood loves a comeback story. This played a big part in why Mickey Rourke won Best Actor in 2008. Now it's Nick Nolte's turn. After a long period personal troubles, the perfect role for him comes around and saves him from himself. But don't count out Christopher Plummer either who plays an aging homosexual man, which the Academy just might not be able to resist.


Best Leading Actress
Who Will Win - Viola Davis - The Help
Who Should Win - Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
The Dark Horse - Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs


Viola Davis' performance in The Help is perhaps the most emotional thing put to film in the past year. However, Meryl Streep does a spot on impersonation of Margaret Thatcher and it is too bad that the rest of the film is so lacking in quality to hurt her chances of winning here. The fact is, Meryl Streep hasn't won an Oscar since 1982's Sophie's Choice. Since then she has been nominated a record 13 times. It's time for the Academy to right this wrong. Glenn Close plays a woman pretending to be a man, a gimmick that the Academy just might go for, so don't count her out either. 



Best Leading Actor
Who Will Win - George Clooney - The Descendants
Who Should Win - Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Dark Horse - Jean Dujardin - The Artist

I've mentioned my dislike for The Descendants on this blog already and Clooney's performance is one of the reasons I didn't like it. I found it muddled and muted, but critics and the Academy have loved it and he is now a frontrunner for the win here. However, despite a long, distinguished career Gary Oldman is just now receiving his first nomination, and the Academy should award him for his fantastic performance in a fantastic career.

Best Director
Who Will Win - Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Who Should Win - Martin Scorsese - Hugo
The Dark Horse - Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist


Scorsese is the best director of the bunch and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Academy try to make up for lost time, having not awarded the accomplished director until his long deserved win for The Departed in 2006. And why not? Hugo is the most nominated film this year and a big part of that is the man at the helm. However, The Artist is Hollywood's darling this year, and it wouldn't be a big surprise to see Hazanavicius walk away with the gold. But the reality is that this category is wide open, and really any of the nominees have a chance at winning.


Best Picture
Who Will Win - The Artist
Who Should Win - The Artist
The Dark Horse - The Descendants


The Artist is the most complete artistic vision of any of the Best Picture nominees. It's an emotional yet entertaining story and it has the chutzpah to be a silent, black and white film in the modern age. A story of silent film actor struggling in the era of talkies told in a silent film in the era of talkies has a delightful meta quality to it. If it were to win it would be the first silent film to win since the very first Academy awards Wings in 1928, and the first black and white film to win since Schindler's List in 1993.